Economic decline is a win for populism

AfD on the rise in regions in decline

»We found that the AfD received a relatively high share of votes in the areas that had fallen particularly sharply in the rankings,« explains Prof. Michael Fritsch. »While regions such as southern Saxony and cities such as Bautzen and Dresden had some of the strongest economies in Germany – if not Europe – in the 1920s, they have suffered an enormous decline in economic importance over the years. Precisely in these areas, support for the AfD is particularly high, even when other potential factors behind voter behaviour are taken into account«. The same, applies, for example, to the Ruhr area and the city of Duisburg, which shows that such phenomena are not limited to eastern Germany.

The team of researchers from the University of Jena emphasizes that the comparison of a voter's own status with other regions clearly plays a decisive role, because prosperity has essentially increased in all regions. »Income in southern Saxony has increased since German reunification and the region plays a leading role within eastern Germany in terms of innovation, income growth and start-ups,« says Michael Fritsch. »But the location's decline from a leading economic position to the bottom quarter of the rankings is leaving its mark on the region's self-perception and making the locals feel more left behind than they actually are«.

The level of resentment felt throughout the region is obviously more pronounced when one knows that there have been much better times in the past. The decision to vote for a right-wing populist party is also an expression of this frustration.

Industrial monuments as a reflection of a prosperous past

The perception of a region's own decline seems to be anchored in a form of collective memory. The team of experts from the University of Jena chose an unusual method to show the strength and vividness of a region's memory of former times: »We related the presence of industrial monuments to variables that indicate economic decline over the past 90 years. It turned out that the decline effect we had observed was stronger in the regions that had a particularly large number of such memorials,« says Dr Maria Greve, who was also involved in the project. »In places where people are acutely aware of their prosperous past in a way that has a strong influence on regional identity, there is a very clear correlation between perceived decline and the electoral success of right-wing populists«.

By looking into the past, the researchers want to show the importance of studying data from a broader time frame if you want to get to the bottom of phenomena such as the rise of right-wing populist parties in Germany and Europe. »It is important to note that we analyse current situations and developments not only with an eye on the post-war period or the upheaval surrounding German reunification - we also look further back in history,« says Dr Michael Wyrwich from the University of Jena. »This can sometimes reveal decisive events that explain phenomena, as well as role models that can be used politically to create a new regional identity«.